RALEIGH — A new poll from the Civitas Institute found that in North Carolina the Republican slate of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and his running mate, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, was running a percentage point ahead of the Democratic ticket of President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden.
The Civitas Poll of 600 likely North Carolina voters was taken Oct. 20-21 and had a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percent. Asked if the election were held today who they would vote for, 48 percent chose Romney/Ryan and 47 percent chose Obama/Biden. The results are of course within the margin of error.
“A few weeks ago some commentators were saying the election was a lock for the president in North Carolina,” Civitas President Francis X. De Luca said. “More recently, others were claiming Democrats were throwing in the towel. Our most recent poll, however, shows that the candidates are virtually tied, with neither above 50 percent yet. That would mean North Carolina is still in play.”
The daily early voting results are available in a user-friendly format at the Civitas Institute’s NC Vote Tracker (ncvotetracker.com) webpage.
In-depth insights on Civitas Polls will be highlighted at this month’s Civitas Poll Presentations (http://www.nccivitas.org/poll-lunch/). The commentator for the Nov. 1 lunch in Raleigh will be News & Observer political writer Rob Christensen. The commentator for the Nov. 2 lunch in Wilmington, NC, will be Civitas President Francis X. De Luca.
Text of questions:
If the election for President and Vice-President were being held today, for whom would you vote: Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, Republicans; or Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Democrats?
45% 48% Total Romney/ Ryan
49% 47% Total Obama/ Biden
40% 45% Definitely Romney/ Ryan
4% 3% Probably Romney/ Ryan
1% 1% Lean Romney/ Ryan
5% 4% Undecided
2% 1% Lean Obama/ Biden
3% 2% Probably Obama/ Biden
44% 44% Definitely Obama/ Biden
2% 1% Refused
*Because of rounding, percentages may not equal totals.
Click here for crosstabs.
About the Poll:
This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted Oct. 20-21, 2012 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered 2012 general election voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2008, 2010) or be newly registered to vote since November 2, 2010. Fifteen percent of this sample (15%) are “cell phone only” households.
The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in at least one of the past two general elections or is newly registered since November 2, 2010.
For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
More information on the Civitas Institute is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099.