The big question this year seems to be: Why are so many unaffiliated (UNA) voters voting early and who are they voting for? It’s not a surprising question since they are turning out in record numbers.
So far, 590,265 UNA voters have cast their ballots either at an early voting site or by mail, making up 25.57 percent of the total ballots cast as of yesterday’s numbers. Compare that to 2012, when at the same time, the UNA group had cast 411,118 ballots, making up 19.8 percent of the votes cast at that time.
While we don’t know exactly who these 590,265 voters (who don’t officially identify with either party) are voting for, the data from the March primary compared to the absentee data for this election may provide a hint.
First, we looked at the March 15, 2016 primary to get the information on the UNA voters voting in that election. In March, 166,561 UNA voters cast ballots: 88,190 (52.9 percent) voted a Republican (REP) ballot and 76,146 (45.7 percent) UNA voters cast a ballot for Democrats (DEM). The rest took an “UNA” ballot.
Looking at “enthusiasm,” of the UNA who choose DEM ballots, 69% had voted while 76% of the UNA who choose REP ballots have voted. So if this group is an indicator of the larger group of UNA who did not vote in the primary, advantage to the Republicans.
Another indicator of where the UNA voters might go was the Civitas August poll of UNA voters. It is the only poll this year of just likely UNA voters. You can see the results here.
As of yesterday’s early voting data, of the 166,561 primary voters, 122,139 (73 percent) had cast their ballots in the General Election. This high percentage number shows enthusiasm among UNA primary voters in general. But go one step further and the Republican primary voters seem to hold the turnout advantage in this group. Republicans make up 55.3 percent the 122,139 voters who have cast their ballots so far in the General Election compared to the Democrats at 43.5 percent
We will see on November 8th what all the numbers mean.
Click here to read about the increase in unaffiliated voter registration in North Carolina.
Susan,
Very good post. Thanks for the information. I check the vote tracker daily and see that possibly the Dem vote is down as much as the UNA vote has increased. Is there the possibility that before the primary a large group of Dem voters went unaffiliated to vote in the Republican primary?
I do have a question that needs to be answered on the age demographic breakdown Pareto chart there is currently over 1,500 116 year old votes counted, how is that possible?
Best Regards
Also, I’m sure you have the data. What is the breakdown of the UNA voter racial profile?
Living in Gates County, when I registered to vote as a teenager, my mom wisely advised me that if I didn’t register as a dem, I would not have any say in local politics as everything is decided at the primary level. (No GOP has won a local office in my lifetime)
When I was helping my daughter’s register early this year, I advised them to register unaffiliated (& my wife & I changed our registrations to unaffiliated).
Our reason, if there is nothing on the local primary that we feel strongly about, we can vote in a GOP primary for state/national offices, but when needed, we can vote Dem in the local primaries.
This is the response I sent to Ken this morning. I hope it is useful for everyone out there with the same questions.
–Anything is possible with voters switching to Unaffiliated to vote in another party primary. But, if you look at voter registration data, this trend has been going on for years. Here’s an article from August talking about just that: https://www.nccivitas.org/2016/ncs-voter-registration-upheaval-2012-2016/
I have the answer to the 116 year olds too, read these blogs to get the history.
http://civitasreview.com/elections-campaigns/110-year-olds-vote-strong-in-nc/
https://www.nccivitas.org/civitas-review/happy-birthday-to-the-112-year-olds-voting-in-2012/
To your question from your second email. All you have to do is click on the bar next to Unaffiliated in the Party graph to get all the information about the unaffiliated voters. Check out the chart below to see the race breakdown for that group.
Thanks so much for using NC Vote Tracker.–
E,
I first registered to vote in Goldsboro when I was 18 (or so) and was told the same thing. There was no one on the local level running for local office as a Republican at that time, so once the general election came around all those races were decided. At the time we didn’t have the option to vote as an unaffiliated voter in one of the major parties primaries.
Thanks for reading and commenting.
Susan
I personally know 2 people that have never voted in their 20 years of being eligible and both voted for TRUMP. In NORTH CAROLINA
I was twice a GOP Precinct Chairman in Cary, but changed my registration to UNA out of disgust over the NCGOP’s unwillingness to end the so-called green energy mandates and other crony policies. I am not alone and would bet that the vast majority of new UNA voters are, like me, Tea Party Conservatives voting for Trump, more out of anger towards the do-nothing GOP Establishment than anything else. And I voted early for the first time in my life this year.
I have been registered UNA since I moved to NC in Aug 1986. I am a conservative which means that I don’t have a political party. The Republicans have morphed into a moderate/progressive party over the years, especially since the 2010 and 2014 midterms where we saw landslide Republican victories and absolutely no pushback or opposition to obama and the Demonrats. Yes, UNA registered voters are conservatives and we will be voting for Trump and against the disgusting establishment Republicans!
I am also a conservative UNA and have already voted for Trump!
I am disgusted with the GOP, to whom we gave House and Senate to rein in 0- which they did not do, but many helped him along in his destruction of our US Constitution including open borders.
Yep, conservative UNaffiliated here for years! Voted early for Trumpet but he was not my favorite pick. Wish we had a conservative Republican running for US Senate, but I held my nose and voted Burr to vote against that oddball Deborah Ross who wants to be the next Kay Hagan…
Remember democrackkks are nothing BUT EVIL !!!